Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 AM EST Wed Feb 01 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 02 2017 - 00Z Thu Feb 09 2017

Models and ensembles agree on a relatively quiet/dry pattern for
the beginning of the forecast period as weak upper ridging passes
to the east and an upper low moves along 35N well to the north of
the islands. Trades should veer from NE around to S ahead of the
tail end of the front but with a lack of moisture present, any
showery activity would be confined mainly to windward areas. By
mid-week however, there continues to be good agreement on a rather
anomalous upper trough digging near 40N which should pull a front
into the NW islands by later on Monday. Ensembles suggest a good
tap of tropical moisture from the ITCZ (with PWs more than 2
standard deviations above normal) which would increase
precipitation chances and coverage over the region on Monday and
Tuesday. Thus, expect heavier rain across the island chain as the
front passes through. Trades veer back to north behind the
boundary by Wednesday/Thursday which should quickly dry things out.

Santorelli