Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 AM EST Thu Feb 02 2017

Valid 00Z Fri Feb 03 2017 - 00Z Fri Feb 10 2017

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show a relatively
quiet/dry pattern initially as weak upper ridging passes to the
east and an upper low moves along 35N well north of the islands.
Winds should veer from northeast around to south ahead of the tail
end of the front but a lack of moisture should keep any showery
activity confined mainly to windward areas. By Monday into Tuesday
however, there continues to be decent agreement on a rather
anomalous upper trough digging southward which should push a front
across the state by later on Monday. Ensembles suggest a good tap
of tropical moisture from the ITCZ (with precipitable water values
more than 2 standard deviations above normal) which would increase
precipitation chances across the region. Periods of heavy rainfall
look likely, with gusty winds as well with the passage of the
front. Winds veer back to north behind the boundary by
Wednesday/Thursday which should quickly dry things out.

Santorelli