Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 AM EST Tue Feb 07 2017

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 08 2017 - 00Z Wed Feb 15 2017

Cold front will continue to exit out of the area today and will be
replaced by weak/brief ridging and surface high pressure late
Wednesday into Thursday. Models and ensembles show another upper
trough and surface front moving through the region late Friday
into Saturday. Recent 00Z-06Z GFS runs were sharper aloft but a
bit quicker with the surface front than the 00Z ECMWF/UKMET while
the 00Z Canadian was quickest. Ensembles support their parent
models, so a blended solution seems prudent. Precipitable water is
forecast to surge along/ahead of the cold front -- about +2 to +3
sigma. Additional moisture from the ITCZ appears to be somewhat
cutoff by drier air along 15N but the threat for at least isolated
heavy rainfall will exist over the weekend. By next week,
ensembles indicate upper ridging nosing in from the west which may
help to keep yet another front just off to the northwest. Trades
will veer over the next week a few times from NW to NE to SE to SW
to NW as the fronts move through.


Fracasso