Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 AM EST Wed Feb 08 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 09 2017 - 00Z Thu Feb 16 2017

Weak ridging and surface high pressure continues to build over the
area in the wake of the cold frontal passage earlier in the week.
Models and ensembles are in agreement that an upper level trough
will push the ridge eastward and allow a surface cold front to
sweep through on Saturday-- followed by another on Tuesday, that
may stall as the ridge returns by middle of next week. Recent runs
of the ECWMF and the UKMET depict a more amplified trough over the
Central Pacific, which in turn would allow a more southern track
than the 00Z/06Z GFS and Canadian solutions. The Ensemble Mean of
each respective deterministic model is aligned with the parent
models, therefore a blended solution is favorable.

Precipitable water values of 1 to 2+ sigma is forecast to surge
along/ahead of the cold front this weekend which would support
isolated heavy rainfall. However, the second cold front will have
higher anomalies associated with it --  about +2 to +3 sigma.
Trades will veer over the next week a few times from NW to NE to
SE to SW to NW as the fronts move through.


Campbell