Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 11 2017 - 00Z Sat Feb 18 2017

Models continue to show excellent agreement on a well-defined cold
front forecast to move through the Hawaiian Islands tonight and
into the weekend.  The associated shortwave energy supports the
best potential for heavy showers over the western part of the
island chain on Saturday before the main energy lifts out to the
northeast on Sunday.  Overall the guidance displays better than
average consensus for the heavy rainfall threat with even the
GEFS/ECMWF means still producing fairly high rainfall totals in
the 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday time frame.  Behind the front,
ridging is indicated before a broad and less-defined front
approaches on Tuesday.  Toward mid-late week guidance today
indicates stronger ridging aloft than yesterday, with the ECMWF/EC
mean being on the stronger side.  The 06z GFS has also trended
toward stronger ridging aloft so a compromise between it and the
00Z ECMWF/EC mean may be reasonable.  Expect rainfall with the
second front to be much lighter than with the first front followed
by a drying trend from the middle to the latter part of next week.

Kong/Rausch