Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 12 2017 - 00Z Sun Feb 19 2017

Models continue to show excellent agreement on the strong cold
front currently moving across the Hawaiian Islands to weaken as it
reaches the eastern part of the Big Island by tonight.  Drier
weather is expected to follow behind the front Sunday and Monday
before a weaker front reaches the islands Tuesday and Wednesday. 
Overall the guidance shows better than average consensus with
respect to the timing of this front.  The ECMWF and EC mean
continue to indicate a stronger subtropical ridge axis south of
Hawaii building eastward compared with the GFS/GEFS solutions. 
This has led to a slower progression of the next cold front
forecast to approach Hawaii by next weekend.  So far the two
clusters have maintained respective continuity so a compromise
timing looks reasonable.  Even with the differences in timing
there is good agreement that most precipitation with this last
front should remain northwest of the islands through next Saturday.

Kong/Rausch