Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
702 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 13 2017 - 00Z Mon Feb 20 2017

Most guidance is fairly close for the expected evolution for the
next seven days though some timing differences develop for the
front expected to reach the area next weekend.  The sharp upper
trough and active cold front that have been bringing locally heavy
rainfall to the state will continue eastward, followed by a pocket
of drier air through Monday.  A cold front weaker than the initial
one will sink southeastward over the area Tuesday-Thursday and
become more ill-defined as it reaches the Big Island.  Some rain
should accompany the front but with light amounts as upper
dynamics will remain well to the north.  The next front will
approach the northwestern islands Saturday and then continue
eastward/southeastward.  GFS runs are a bit weaker with the upper
ridge building over and south/east of the state during the week
and are then faster to weaken the ridge in response to upstream
shortwave energy during the weekend.  As a result the GFS becomes
somewhat faster than most other guidance with the front. 
Regardless of timing there is good agreement that rainfall with
the front should be fairly light and trailing high pressure
building to the northwest of the state by Sunday will promote a
trend toward brisk northerly winds.  Before the weekend winds will
tend to be southwesterly aside from more variability in the
vicinity of the midweek front.

Rausch