Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 14 2017 - 00Z Tue Feb 21 2017

Model guidance starts off in rather good agreement regarding the
synoptic features influencing Hawaii.  A cold front currently
approaching the western portion of the island chain is forecast to
move across the area Tuesday through Thursday and weakens as it
reaches the Big Island.  Some rain should accompany the front but
with light amounts as upper dynamics will remain well to the
north.  This will be followed by a drier day on Friday before the
next front arriving during the weekend.  Models show noticeable
discrepancy regarding the timing of the front with the 00Z ECMWF
being almost a day slower than the 00Z and 06Z GFS.  The 00Z EC
mean however shows a stronger high pressure system building in
behind the front and therefore faster progression of the front
than the 00Z ECMWF but still slower than the GFS solutions.  It
appears that the 00Z ECMWF is too slow and a compromise between
the EC mean and GFS should yield a good starting point for the
timing of this front during weekend.

Kong/Rausch