Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 15 2017 - 00Z Wed Feb 22 2017

Model guidance is in rather good agreement today regarding the
synoptic features affecting Hawaii.  A weak cold front currently
approaching the western portion of the island chain is forecast to
move across the area tonight and Wednesday before dissipating on
Thursday as it reaches the Big Island.  Light showers should only
accompany the front as upper dynamics will remain well to the
north.  This will be followed by a dry day on Friday before the
next front approaches the island from the west on Saturday.  The
timing differences between the GFS and the ECMWF yesterday have
been resolved today as the ECMWF/EC mean has sped up the front to
agree with the GFS/GEFS.  The 00Z EC mean shows a stronger upper
shortwave trough arriving from the north but that has not affected
the timing of the frontal passage across Hawaii.  Therefore,
showers are expected to move across the islands from west to east
mainly from Saturday night through Sunday night.  Southwesterly
winds will increase ahead of the front before the trade winds
return early next week with drier and cooler conditions as a
strong high pressure system builds in from the north.

Kong