Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 19 2017 - 00Z Sun Feb 26 2017

Cold front to the northwest of the area will move through on
Saturday afternoon and evening with winds increasing from the
north and then northeast. Showers should be relatively light
except for over favored windward and higher elevation areas.
Trades will remain elevated next week as a 1030mb surface high
slides eastward along 30N.

Ensembles show another shortwave late Monday that should dig and
deepen to the northeast of the state, likely closing off near
37N/154W late Tuesday or early Wednesday. This may sink southward
along 150W but the tropical moisture plume should remain southeast
of the area. Recent GFS runs were farther south than the ensemble
consensus and 00Z ECMWF/Canadian. Preference lies with the larger
ECMWF-led cluster. Ensemble suggest yet another shortwave to drop
southward from the mid-latitudes late Friday into next Saturday to
the northeast of Hawai'i just north of 30N around 165W. The
deterministic GFS/ECMWF/Canadian were much stronger than the
ensemble means, but the upper pattern across the Pacific supports
a closed low beneath an upper high in the Gulf of Alaska as an
upstream upper low over the NW Pacific strengthens.


Fracasso