Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 28 2017 - 00Z Tue Mar 07 2017

Especially by Tuesday-Wednesday the pattern will become
increasingly favorable for locally heavy rainfall over the state. 
An upper trough initially west of the islands will promote a flow
of deep moisture from the south.  In response to this trough
current guidance shows an area of low pressure likely forming over
the islands around Wednesday/Wednesday night with northward
progression of the low and upper level support heralding a drying
trend from Thursday into the weekend.  There is reasonably good
agreement in evolution at the surface and aloft aside from lower
predictability detail differences.  Toward Sunday-Monday the
northwestern islands may see some increase in shower activity as a
front extending from a central Pacific system becomes aligned
nearly parallel with upper flow.  At least into Sunday 00z/06z GFS
runs and some 00z GEFS ensembles show lower heights aloft over the
region versus a majority of other models/ensembles.  Thus it may
be reasonable to lean toward slightly later onset of rainfall than
depicted in the GFS/GEFS mean.

Rausch