Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 719 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 01 2017 - 00Z Wed Mar 08 2017 Over the next couple days guidance maintains a favorable scenario for locally heavy rainfall as an approaching upper level trough helps to pull up moisture and a developing area of low pressure from the south. The surface low is forecast to cross the northwestern islands within a few hours of 00z Thursday. Expect a period of drier conditions late in the week as the upper trough and surface low continue to lift northward, though a southerly component of low level flow may support some lingering moisture. During the weekend a front approaching/reaching the state will bring another chance for showers but with lighter amounts than with the first episode. Model/ensemble differences increase toward Monday-Tuesday as an anomalously deep upper low for its latitude develops well to the northwest of the state. The 00z GFS extends its upper low to the southeast of most other model/ensemble solutions. The 06z GFS is more east-northeast of consensus. Leaning toward the majority cluster that holds height falls somewhat farther northwestward would favor either a delay or a more westward displacement for development of heavier rainfall relative to what is depicted in GFS runs. Rausch