Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
648 AM EST Fri Mar 03 2017

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 04 2017 - 00Z Sat Mar 11 2017


Guidance still agrees upon a weakening front reaching the western
islands during the weekend with light to moderate rainfall. The
models forecast the front to weaken early next week but the plume
of enhanced moisture remains in place.
By the middle of next week, the next front forms and slowly
approaches from the northwest.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show low level southeast flow south of the
islands that advects higher precipitable water values with both
models indicating values 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal
in the middle to latter portion of next week.  The frontal
boundary plus high available moisture should lead to greater than
normal rainfall coverage in the islands in the middle to latter
options of next week.  Typical frontal timing differences persists
which impact which portions of the islands will be most impacted
by the showers next week. These considerations and the variability
of models/ensembles favor a compromise timing of the upper trough
and surface front/rainfall through next Friday.
In the southeast islands, 850 mb temperatures look to stay above
normal through the weekend and at least the early part of next
week, so a period of warm weather is expected.

Petersen