Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EST Wed Mar 08 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 09 2017 - 00Z Thu Mar 16 2017

The models forecast a closed mid level low north of the islands
with a trough extending west of the Hawaiian islands.  This allows
deep moisture to remain across the islands until late week. 
The pattern changes over the weekend as the low weakens and lifts
northeast, with the upper trough axis
moving east through the islands late in the week and east of the
islands Friday.  With a stalling front in the vicinity and deep
moisture, scattered precipitation is expected between now and when
the upper trough passes.

Over the weekend the pattern transitions as the GFS and ECMWF
agree on a low level ridge building north of the islands.  The
trend over the weekend into early next week is for drying aloft,
with the layer 1000-500 mb layer humidity dropping below 50
percent across the islands. The low level winds become
east-southeast with the primary focus for precipitation where the
winds turn upslope in the southeast islands, particularly the big
island.  Coverage in the northwest islands will be isolated next
week as the models show heights building aloft with the ridging
aloft arcing north into the region. The models and ensemble means
indicate this scenario with less than average spread through the
middle of next week.

Petersen