Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 714 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 15 2017 - 00Z Wed Mar 22 2017 The models are in good agreement and show a low level ridge in place through mid week just north of the islands. A weak inverted trough and local sea breezes focus scattered showers mostly in the big island and Maui. Isolated light showers are expected elsewhere. On Thu-Thu night, a cold front crosses the islands. The front brings an uptick in showers but weak low level convergence leads to modest coverage and amounts. After the front passes, the low level flow is forecast to gradually veer, starting from north to northeast and eventually east near the end of next weekend or early next week. Windward showers are expected with the wind speeds greater than early in the week. The higher speeds result in greater lift and the model amounts are a little higher this coming weekend where coastal convergence occurs. The location of the low-mid level ridge early next week keeps precipitable water values low, so the chances of heavy rain are minimal. The rising heights aloft lead to above normal temperatures. The models and ensembles cluster well with the pattern evolution. The majority indicates a strong mid level ridge building into the islands early next week, with a surface high north of the islands. Warmer than normal temperatures aloft should lead to above normal temperatures across the region. Petersen