Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 16 2017 - 00Z Thu Mar 23 2017

The models are in good agreement and show a low level ridge in
place through today just north of the islands. A weak inverted
trough and local sea breezes focus scattered showers mostly in the
big island and Maui. Isolated light showers are expected elsewhere.

On Thu-Thu night, a cold front crosses the islands. The front
brings an uptick in showers but weak low level convergence leads
to modest coverage and amounts.

After the front passes, a low level ridge builds north of the
islands. The low level flow is forecast to gradually veer,
starting from north to northeast and east northeast early next
week.  Windward showers are expected with the trade winds
resuming. The higher speeds result in greater lift and the model
amounts are a little higher this coming weekend where coastal
convergence occurs, focused on the big island and Maui. 

The location of the low-mid level ridge early to the mid;e part
next week keeps precipitable water values low, so the chances of
heavy rain are minimal. The rising heights aloft lead to above
normal temperatures. The models and ensembles cluster well with
the pattern evolution.

Petersen