Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 19 2017 - 00Z Sun Mar 26 2017

Models and ensembles are consistent and agreeable in establishing
then maintaining a relatively dry trade wind regime with the
departure of a weak front currently drifting across the Big
Island.  Initially behind the front winds should have some degree
of northeasterly component.  By late Sunday into next week expect
trades to flow more from the east and become at least moderate in
strength as surface high pressure builds north of the islands. 
This high center will move east with time but by the latter half
of the week a fast moving high from the western Pacific will take
its place and likely be located northeast of the state by next
Saturday.  Models generally anticipate precipitable water values
to be within a standard deviation of normal values, the ECMWF
somewhat lower than the GFS.  Meanwhile ridging aloft should
prevail through midweek.  Most guidance shows some weakening of
this ridge late in the week with the possibility of rebuilding
just west/north of the islands by next Saturday.  The 00z
ECMWF/ECMWF mean are more pronounced with this rebuilding while
the 00z CMC/CMC maintain a stronger ridge overall late in the
week.  The ridging aloft and modest moisture should promote
relatively light windward focused rainfall.

Rausch