Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 21 2017 - 00Z Tue Mar 28 2017

The mid-latitude pattern will remain amplified and progressive
while mean ridging extends across the Central Tropical Pacific.
This particular setup should continue throughout the forecast
period with no frontal passages expected to cross the island
chain. At the surface, a series of anticyclones passing to the
north will ensure a general trade wind regime. There may be brief
upticks in the intensity of these winds given any increase in
synoptic pressure gradients. The overall access to tropospheric
moisture should not be tremendous with models actually showing a
decrease in precipitable water values beyond Tuesday. A
preponderous of the available solutions favor the best
precipitation threat across the Big Island and perhaps up into
Maui. Overall, confidence in the evolving pattern is on the higher
side given much of the action remains well north of Hawai`i. Of
course many detail differences exist more along the lines of the
mesoscale, especially with any meaningful shower threat. 


Rubin-Oster