Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 AM EDT Sat Apr 08 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 09 2017 - 00Z Sun Apr 16 2017

A solid upper ridge of high pressure over Hawaii will deamplify
and begin sliding off to the east over the weekend. This is
response to an upstream digging short wave positioned currently
near 30N 175-180W being a kicker. The bulk of upper dynamics with
this feature will shear downstream north of the islands but a
batch in the base will relocate just west of the state on Sunday
into Monday. This weakness will be relatively stationary west or
northwest of the islands, before becoming extremely positively
tilted and advancing to the east or through the state. Now despite
all this activity aloft, it appears the main surface
front/boundary will remain north of the state. However, the
lowering of heights and increasing southwesterly component should
allow moisture content to gradually increase, especially by mid to
late next week. As a result, an increase in shower activity across
the chain of the islands will be likely. Overall the global models
have a good handle on this forecast scenario over the next week
with only minimal spread.

Musher