Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 804 AM EDT Mon May 08 2017 Valid 00Z Tue May 09 2017 - 00Z Tue May 16 2017 Today's model and ensemble guidance agrees well for large scale evolution at the surface and aloft. What forecast differences exist are for smaller scale aspects that have relatively low predictability. Overall expect a showery pattern with precipitable water values tending to be above normal and supporting potential for some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. Between now and late week central Pacific surface high pressure will strengthen gradually and reach a position north-northeast of the state near 40N 150W then drift a little south with time, in the process replacing a weaker eastern Pacific high. The combination of these highs will support easterly or east-southeasterly winds for a majority of the period. Meanwhile an upper low closing off to the northwest of the islands will likely weaken by the latter half of the week into the weekend. The upper low should remain far enough away from the islands to keep heaviest associated rainfall just west of the state, though a persistent modest weakness over the islands may be an added contributing factor for enhanced rainfall at times. Rausch