Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

Valid 00Z Sun May 14 2017 - 00Z Sun May 21 2017

The subtropical ridge should hold sway over Hawai'ian weather
through Wednesday.  Thereafter, a mid-level trough moves by just
to the north bringing a weak front/shear line into the
Papahanaumokuakea National Marine Monument Thursday into Friday
which should weaken the Trade Winds until at least Saturday.  The
00z ECMWF appears too far south with a closed low south of Alaska
on Friday and Saturday and would hold less weight for the model
preference -- a solution north of the ECMWF would be preferred
with the mid-Pacific cyclone from Friday onward.  Precipitable
water values should be close to normal -- 1.25" -- through the
period which should allow for upslope showers within the Trade
Wind regime.

Roth