Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Valid 00Z Mon May 22 2017 - 00Z Mon May 29 2017

Tonight into Monday a front will move from west to east across the
waters north of the islands.  An inverted trough progresses across
the islands in tandem with the front. The front will dissipate
with time as high pressure builds north of Hawaii and the trades
refresh to moderate levels in the middle of the week. From Monday
through Thu expect more windward shower focus in eastern coastal
areas and where upslope flow occurs in terrain.

The high weakens and retreats to the east late in the week as a
deep layer trough builds in from the northeast.
The 00z GFS and 00Z gefs mean are in good agreement with the 00z
ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean, while the 06z GFS run became a low
probability solution in more quickly ejecting the 700-500 mb
trough away from the islands.  
Friday through Sunday May 28 the weak low level flow means
scattered showers may occur with the sea breeze and transient low
amplitude surface troughs.

Petersen