Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 AM EDT Sat Jun 03 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 04 2017 - 00Z Sun Jun 11 2017

Models and ensembles show good agreement on the longwave/upper
pattern across the central/sub-tropical Pacific next week. An
upper/sfc high will strengthen to the northwest of the area and
move eastward along 30-33N which will keep modest trades in the
forecast, waning a bit early in the week before the pressure
gradient increases a bit. The tail end of a cold front may bring
in a PW plume toward the northern islands later in the week but
the 00Z ECMWF was on the most aggressive side of the guidance. The
00Z GFS (and many GEFS members) lied in the lower 1/3rd of the
multi-center ensemble spread regarding the PW values so a middle
ground solutions was preferred for now. Otherwise only light
windward showers are expected through the period.


Fracasso