Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 759 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Jun 14 2017 - 00Z Wed Jun 21 2017 Latest guidance agrees fairly well with the overall forecast through the next seven days with some typical detail differences. The period from now through Thursday will see the potential for locally heavy areas of rainfall as an upper level low travels southwestward across the western islands while precipitable water values are forecast to be in the 1.50-1.75 inch range, up to 2-3 standard deviations above normal. From late week into next week most models/means show an upper ridge building in from the east while precipitable water values decrease (00z ECMWF to a somewhat greater extent than GFS/GEFS runs). Thus expect shower activity to trend lighter for Friday-Tuesday. The 00z CMC is the one misfit piece of guidance in pulling some of the upper level energy back to the northeast, while its ensemble mean is more similar to consensus. From now into the weekend expect a gradual weakening of trades as the progression of a mid-latitude Pacific front erodes the east-west surface ridge to the north of the state. Then from about late Sunday onward high pressure should rebuild a little, helping to bring trades back to moderate levels for the first half of next week. During the weekend trades may be weak enough to allow for some sea/land breezes. Rausch