Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 15 2017 - 00Z Thu Jun 22 2017

From now through at least Thursday the combination of a compact
upper low near the western islands and above normal precipitable
water values (1.5-1.75 inches, 2-3 standard deviations above
normal) will support potential for areas of locally heavy
rainfall.  Then expect activity to trend lighter as drier air and
upper level ridging move in from the east.  The CMC continues to
be the one extreme solution in keeping the upper level weakness
over the area through the weekend with its ensemble mean still
closer to consensus.  Latest GFS/ECMWF runs indicate that a pocket
of moisture initially over the eastern Pacific may reach the state
around Tuesday-Wednesday.  Guidance continues to show a weakening
of trades from now to about the middle of the weekend as a
mid-latitude front erodes the east-west ridge to the north of the
state.  Thus there could be some sea breeze influence for shower
activity in the late week/weekend time frame.  Trades will likely
return to at least moderate strength early next week as eastern
Pacific high pressure builds westward, with greater windward focus
for rainfall.

Rausch