Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Jun 29 2017 - 00Z Thu Jul 06 2017

Models and ensembles show an upper trough moving westward later
this week (Fri into next week) just north of Hawai'i as an upper
high develops to the north and northwest of the region. Just prior
to the upper trough's approach, a surge in precipitable water is
forecast to swing through the area from the northeast as it splits
off front a frontal boundary around 40N. The upper trough itself
will maintain elevated PW values into next week. Widespread light
to modest rains will overspread the region.

Upper high to the north will support a surface high pressure
(about 1032-1035mb) and a stronger pressure gradient which will
increase trades next week after a brief weaker period this weekend
as the upper trough passes through. ECMWF and Canadian ensembles
still showed higher heights over the area by next
Tuesday/Wednesday compared to the GEFS members (00Z). A blended
solutions seems reasonable given the relative closeness of the
guidance.


Fracasso