Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 AM EDT Sun Jul 02 2017

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 03 2017 - 00Z Mon Jul 10 2017

Models and ensemble means share similar ideas for the upcoming
week's forecast.  Mid-latitude Pacific high pressure will
gradually evolve in shape/position during the period but overall
will support persistent trade flow.  Expect trades to be strongest
during the first half of the week after departure of an initial
surface trough/mid level weakness.  The surface gradient should be
modestly weaker late in the week and remain at a similar level
through the weekend in response to another bundle of energy aloft
drifting over the state from the northeast/east.

Drier air about to move into the area, with precipitable water
values declining to near or somewhat below normal values, will
likely lead to a lighter trend for generally windward focused
showers.  The weak energy aloft crossing the state late week into
the weekend could provide a slight increase of rainfall amounts. 
Expect precipitable water values to remain a little below normal
over most of the state through the weekend.  An area of higher
moisture circulating around an upper high well northwest of the
state could brush the northwestern islands Friday into the
weekend.  The 00z ECMWF as well as 06z GFS/00z GEFS mean suggest
this moisture should remain farther northwestward than seen in the
00z GFS.

Rausch