Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EDT Mon Aug 07 2017

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 08 2017 - 00Z Tue Aug 15 2017

Models and ensembles show good agreement and continuity for the
overall pattern through the period, while converging somewhat for
the moisture forecast around next weekend.  Fairly brisk trades
that have been in place will be lighter early this week as a
mid-latitude front briefly weakens the surface ridge to the north
of the state.  Trades will be stronger once again for the
Thursday-Monday period as ridging at the surface and aloft builds
then persists over the central/east-central Pacific.  Shower
activity will be primarily though not exclusively focused over
windward terrain, and generally in the lighter half of the
spectrum given below normal precipitable water values.  Over the
past day GFS runs have trended more suppressed with an area of
enhanced low latitude moisture next weekend (in the direction of
recent ECMWF runs), leading to better agreement that PWATs should
remain fairly low over the islands at that time.

Rausch