Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 07 2017 - 00Z Sat Oct 14 2017

Models and ensembles reasonably agree that a potent closed low now
northeast of the islands over the eastern Pacific will meander
into early next week, potentially to be replaced by new mid-upper
level trough/low energy slated to dig to the lee of an amplified
mid-upper level ridge now centered well NNW of the state over the
northern Pacific. In this scenario a shower focusing trailing cold
front works into the islands and then stalls near state into early
next week, leading to an easing of trades.

Guidance spread and uncertainty rapidly increases by mid-late next
week with respect to amplitude and proximity of the second trough
digging southward toward Hawaii. A favored composite of models and
ensembles would result in a moderately amplified system to the
north of the state as the lead old front very slowly retreats
northward. This could allow for deeper moisture to work into the
state in a continued showery/unsettled and uncertain flow pattern.

Schichtel