Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Sat Oct 07 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 08 2017 - 00Z Sun Oct 15 2017

Guidance reasonably agrees that a well defined closed low now
northeast of the islands over the eastern Pacific will meander
into early next week. Troughing to the north of the state then
becomes rejuvinated by upstream trough/low energy slated to dig to
the lee of an amplified mid-upper level ridge now centered well
NNW of the state over the northern Pacific. In this scenario a
shower focusing trailing remains stalled near state into early
next week in a pattern with eased trades. Guidance spread and
uncertainty increases by mid-late next week with respect to
phasing, amplitude and proximity of troughing digging southward
toward Hawaii, but forecast spread has decreased compared to
yesterday. A favored composite of models and ensembles would
result in a closed low settling to just NNW of the state into late
next week as the front slowly retreats/reforms northward. This
would allow tropical moisture to work back into the state from the
southeast as trades rebound in a unsettled flow pattern with some
enhanced showers.

Schichtel