Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Sun Oct 08 2017

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 09 2017 - 00Z Mon Oct 16 2017

Models and ensembles blend well from latest satellite loops and
show that a well defined closed low still northeast of the islands
will continue to meander into early next week. Troughing to the
north of the state then becomes rejuvinated by upstream trough/low
energy slated to dig to the lee of an amplified mid-upper level
ridge expected to rebuild well north of the state over the
northern Pacific into Alaska. In this scenario a shower focusing
front/boundary remains stalled near state into early next week in
a pattern with eased trades. Guidance spread and uncertainty
increases by late week with respect to phasing, amplitude and
proximity of troughing digging southward toward Hawaii, but
forecast spread has decreased. A favored composite of models and
ensembles would result in a closed low settling to just north of
the state into late next week as the front slowly retreats
northward/weakens. Mid-upper level troughing settling down over
the state would induce inverted surface troughing however, and
this would allow tropical moisture to work back into the state
from the southeast as trades rebound in a unsettled/wettened flow
pattern with some enhanced showers as forecast precipitable water
values rise in excess of 1.75".

Schichtel