Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 15 2017 - 00Z Sun Oct 22 2017

As a surface trough and upper level weakness continue to move away
from the state to the west, high pressure settling to the north of
the state will promote very strong trades from Sunday through most
of the week.  Model trends over the past day have been toward a
somewhat stronger/more persistent ridge aloft to the
northwest/north of the state late in the week, ultimately delaying
the weakening of surface high pressure by about a day.  Thus it
may take until Saturday for windy conditions to slacken somewhat.

The potential remains for some locally enhanced rainfall this
weekend with precipitable water values tending to be in the
1.50-1.75 inch range.  Guidance agrees on a drying trend after
Sunday with PWATs declining to 1-1.25 inches.  Activity should
focus over windward terrain but may occasionally reach other
locations as well.  The aforementioned trend with the ridge aloft
now yields better agreement that any upper level energy to the
south of the ridge will be suppressed and fairly weak, keeping
lower latitude moisture well south of the state through the end of
the period-- in contrast to isolated pieces of guidance that had
previously increased moisture over the southeastern islands late
in the week.

Rausch