Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
828 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 26 2017 - 00Z Thu Nov 02 2017

A main front will settle just east of the Big Island to ease the
threat of heavy rain after today as drier air settles across the
state. This all occurs underneath a potent closed low spinning to
the north of the state. A decent cluster of ECMWF/Canadian
ensemble members offer a slightly slower ejection of this low than
a deterministic model composite and GEFS ensembles. That seems
quite plausible given satellite imagery and the historical nature
of closed systems. Anomalously high precipitable water values
within a deep moisture plume from the ITCZ shift just offshore the
Big Island. By early next week, another surface front approaches
the region from the northwest with development of a new closed
low/trough aloft. In response, return moisture flow and showers
may gradually increase across the islands Sunday through next
Wednesday as the stalled lead front weakens and loses influence.

Schichtel