Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 810 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Nov 01 2017 - 00Z Wed Nov 08 2017 During the next couple days the northwest islands will see the potential for periods of heavy rainfall. This activity will be supported by a deep upper low to the northwest of the state and leading flow that should bring an axis of precipitable water values approaching or exceeding two inches over the threat area. Guidance agrees well on the overall scenario. Expect drier conditions for the remainder of the period as a ridge aloft builds over and north of the state, with PWATs declining to the 1.00-1.25 inch range by Sunday-Tuesday. Through at least Thursday winds will average from the southeast with low pressure/front to the west and an open ridge to the east-northeast. Then expect winds to strengthen and turn more easterly as high pressure tracks southward along about 150W longitude. During the first half of next week most guidance shows a cold front eroding this ridge from the northwest, leading to some weakening of trades next Tuesday. The one notable model difference by next Tuesday is that the 06z GFS brings the trough aloft to the west of the state a little farther east than consensus, so preference would be to lean away from that solution toward the end of the forecast period. Rausch