Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Wed Nov 01 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 02 2017 - 00Z Thu Nov 09 2017

Models/ensembles show reasonably good agreement and continuity for
the next week.  An upper ridge building over and north of the
state will push away a deep upper low to the northwest of the
area.  This will reduce the threat of heavy rainfall over the
northwestern islands shortly after the start of the forecast
period.  Otherwise expect the ridging aloft to promote relatively
lighter shower activity through the middle of next week, and lower
precipitable water values around 1.00-1.25 inches likely by
Sunday-Wednesday will also help to keep rainfall on the lighter
side.  As a north-south ridge just northeast of the area drifts
westward over the next couple days, expect winds to be initially
from the southeast on average (more easterly near the Big Island
and more southerly over the northwestern islands) and then become
more easterly.  Trades will become stronger during the weekend and
early next week as strong though gradually weakening high pressure
tracks southward along 150W longitude.  Trades should slacken
somewhat by Tuesday-Wednesday as a cold front extending from a
northeast Pacific system further erodes the ridge.  Toward the end
of the period GFS runs continue to bring lingering upper trough
energy to the west of the islands closer to the area than most
other guidance.

Rausch