Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 722 AM EST Wed Nov 08 2017 Valid 00Z Thu Nov 09 2017 - 00Z Thu Nov 16 2017 Models and ensembles generally agree that weakening upper ridging over the region will shift westward and be replaced by troughing this weekend into next week, nudging westward past 150W. This supports a fairly quiet pattern through the weekend with generally light windward/mauka showers via modest trades. Precipitable water values are forecast to remain near to below average until next week when an increase is likely. This should bring an increase to shower activity over the eastern islands (Big Island and Maui) as well as favored windward areas. 00 ECMWF was on the deeper side of the deterministic models with an upper low near 30N/150W next Tuesday but within the ensemble spread, which shows the possibility of an upper low in generally the same area. Fracasso