Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 AM EST Fri Mar 09 2018

Valid 00Z Sat Mar 10 2018 - 00Z Sat Mar 17 2018

...Heavy rain possible next week...

Brisk trades will continue through the weekend as strong high
pressure well north of the Islands gradually weakens and shifts
southeastward over the next few days (Going from roughly 1043mb
centered over 40N/180W on 12Z Saturday to about 1033mb near
30N/170W by 12Z Monday).  By early the week, sharpening mid-level
energy and an associated surface low should lift northeastward
just west of the Islands.  This, combined with a surge of
precipitable water (greater than 3 standard deviations above
normal), should bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the region mid
to late next week.  Model guidance was showing fairly good
agreement with the sharpening mid-level energy and surface low
lifting west of Islands.  However, the Canadian and Canadian mean
remained on the western side of model spread with the surface,
while the GFS tracks the low closest to the Islands.    


Gerhardt