Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 823 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Apr 14 2018 - 00Z Sat Apr 21 2018 An upper low will form just west of the area (around 162W) later today and move westward underneath an upper ridge moving eastward through the mid-latitudes. This should guide a surface front (currently located north of 30N) to the south by early this weekend before dissipating north of the region around 25N. Ensembles show a brief increase in moisture late Saturday into Sunday from the southeast before generally shunting the axis west and southwest of the region next week. After scattered showers this weekend (with locally modest amounts and even some convection), lighter/isolated showers are expected next week as another surface high (near 1040mb early Sunday) moves eastward then southeastward east of 155W, increasing trades. Upper ridging should hold shower activity to a relative minimum. Ensembles still disagree on how much to increase moisture again later next week -- GFS/GEFS were generally higher than the ECMWF/EC-ENS but could not favor one over the other yet. Fracasso