Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
819 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

Valid 00Z Mon May 28 2018 - 00Z Mon Jun 4 2018

Model guidance remains fairly locked into the large scale
evolution of flow next week, which should feature the weakening of
subtropical ridging initially settled over the Islands today.  An
upper level low is expected to form just northwest of Kauai by
Monday night from the elongated trough to the north, and this low
should then slowly drift westward away from the Islands.  However,
a surge of tropically infused precipitable water values east of
the low should advect northward over the state during the middle
of the week.  Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in
relatively good agreement with the timing of the westward
progression of the closed low, and are even reasonably well
clustered with lifting the feature northeastward towards a
shortwave crossing the northern Pacific late next week.   


Hamrick