Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 816 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018 Valid 00Z Wed May 30 2018 - 00Z Wed Jun 06 2018 Expect trade flow to prevail during the period with wind speeds fluctuating in response to evolution/movement of mid-latitude high pressure. Best guidance consensus would suggest strongest trades will be around this Wednesday and early next week. An upper low initially just west of the state will move westward to about 170W longitude and then open up, keeping heaviest rainfall west of the area. However a separate pocket of moisture/shortwave energy aloft over the islands may provide some enhancement to rainfall into Wednesday. Guidance agrees upon some degree of central Pacific upper trough amplification by late week/weekend but with meaningful spread. The 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF mean/CMC all show an upper low closing off northwest/west of the state by Sunday-Tuesday while in contrast the 00Z GFS/GEFS mean/UKMET show a farther eastward open wave. The CMC mean does not close off a low but shows an upper trough axis between the two sides of the envelope, while the 06Z GFS has trended to a closed low slightly east of the ECMWF cluster. The 06Z GFS trend along with CMC/ECMWF/ECMWF mean continuity seem to favor leaning more toward a compromise among the 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF cluster. Based on this more likely scenario expect some increase in moisture and rainfall over at least portions of the state during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. Rausch