Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Valid 00Z Mon Jul 16 2018 - 00Z Mon Jul 23 2018

Water vapor imgaery shows a well organized cirulation aloft to the
NNW of the state that a guidance generally agrees to settle along
with an associated heavier precipiatation focus to the northwest
of the islands during the next week. Cells of high pressure
centered at the surface to the northeast and far northwest of the
islands should meanwhile favor moderate mean trades underneath
into the state. In this flow, expect a windward terrain favored
rainfall pattern as enhanced locally over the next 24 hours by
embedded deeper moisture passage and lingering instability. A
flood advisory also remains in effect for the Pahoa and volcano
areas associated with lava/environment interaction effects. A
favored model and ensemble composite indicates that increased
ridging aloft and gradually decreasing moisture should afford
drier and more stable conditions by Monday. However, a disturbance
in the deep tropics then passing to the south of the Big Island
could fuel some enhanced showers Wednesday/Thursday, with
additional tropical moisture potentially approaching next weekend.

Schichtel