Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1215 PM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Aug 25 2018 - 00Z Sat Sep 01 2018 ...Hurricane Lane expected to be closest to the Hawaiian islands today into Saturday with torrential rains and possibly high winds... ...Unsettled weather is expected to linger through the weekend into early next week... Major hurricane Lane, located to the southwest of the Big Island as of early Friday, continues to move slowly northward closer to the main Hawaiian Islands. The GFS continues to advertise a northeastward track bringing the center of Lane very close to, if not over, the central main Hawaiian Islands tonight into early Saturday. Meanwhile, the recent ECMWF has abandoned this right turn scenario and begins to track Lane WNW away from the Hawaiian Islands. The official forecast calls for a compromise between these opposing scenarios, bringing the core of Lane northward closer to the Hawaiian Islands before pulling westward away from Hawaii later on Saturday. It is also interesting to note that there is a smaller low pressure circulation moving simultaneously northward passing to the east of the Big Island. This small circulation may help erode the subtropical ridge, which would pull the track of Lane slightly more to the northeast (this situation could be what the GFS has been forecasting). In any event, locally extreme rainfall with strong winds are likely over much of the region, especially the Big Island. Please see the latest advisory information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. For the weekend into next week, the weakening cyclone will push westward and then northwestward away from Hawaii but its moisture source from the ITCZ will be pulled across the islands on its east side with SE flow which will keep precipitable water values high through at least the first half of next week. Though coverage of heavy rainfall may be less than with the hurricane itself, the threat will remain for much of the period. Models/ensembles indicate an upper high will build into the region by late Wednesday into next Thursday which will help tamper the rain chances as trades become ENE again. Kong