Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018 Valid 00Z Fri Sep 21 2018 - 00Z Fri Sep 28 2018 The latest models and ensembles reasonably agree that upper ridging will spread gradually westward over the state underneath a pair of closed lows developing to the northwest and then northeast of Hawaii this week. Moisture will become more limited after today so expect generally fair conditions with modest trades and light mauka/windward showers to then persist into early next week. By next Tuesday/Wednesday, the upper low to the northeast is forecast to weaken, but additional energy digging to the lee of western Pacific upper ridging is now expected to more ernestly dig into a reinforcing trough/closed low position to the northwest of the state. Increased amplitude trends as best depicted by the 00 UTC ECMWF may be favored given high ampltide of the upstream ridge in most guidance. This may set the stage for deeper return moisture response from the tropics into the islands next midweek and an associated development of an enhanced potential for heavier showers. Schichtel