Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
721 AM EST Wed Nov 07 2018

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 08 2018 - 00Z Thu Nov 15 2018

Satellite imagery early this morning show an upper-level trough
situated several hundred miles north of Hawaii. An associated
surface frontal boundary was focusing shower activity in the
vicinity of this shortwave. This front is expected to approach
Hawaii through the next couple days as the upper trough amplifies
with models showing general agreement on development of an upper
low north of Hawaii on Thu. Expect shower activity to increase a
bit as the front passes Hawaii Fri-Sun, although moisture along
the boundary appears relatively modest so widespread or heavy
rainfall appears unlikely. Weak low-level easterly flow will
become northerly as the front passes, with a period of gusty
conditions possible Fri night-Sat in the wake of the front. By
early next week, heights will begin to rise across Hawaii as the
upper trough weakens/moves east and upper ridging builds across
the Central Pacific. Surface high pressure is expected to remain
in place north of Hawaii through much of next week, keeping
relatively dry air advecting across Hawaii and bringing a
resumption of moderate trades (20-25 kt). This setup will keep
shower activity rather sparse next week, confined to only the most
favored windward locations.


Ryan