Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 AM EST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 09 2018 - 00Z Fri Nov 16 2018

A deep upper low to the north of the Aloha state (500mb height
anomalies about -2.5 standard deviations) is forecast to slowly
but steadily move northeastward over the next few days. At the
surface, a cold front to the north and northwest of the area will
sink southeastward into the western islands late Friday and
through the Big Island on Sunday per the latest consensus (with
some timing differences between the models/ensembles). Rainfall
with the frontal passage should be widespread but light to modest
in amounts given only a brief (~24 hrs) surge in precipitable
water values over ~1.75 inches as the larger moisture surge will
be east of the area along 150W where a surface-850mb trough will
pull up 2 inch PW air from the ITCZ. Winds will increase behind
the front from the north to about 20 kts with higher gusts late
this weekend then slowly subside and veer back to
east-northeasterly then easterly next week. Heights are forecast
to build over the area next week within a more typical trade
pattern and light windward/mauka showers.


Fracasso