Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
729 AM EST Sat Jan 5 2019

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 6 2019 - 00Z Sun Jan 13 2019

Models and ensembles this morning are in relatively good agreement
over the central Pacific regarding the synoptic scale pattern. 
The surface high initially north of the state on Friday slowly
shifts east by Sunday night as a cold front sinks southward by
Monday morning from a strong mid-latitude cyclone near 40 degrees
north.  High pressure briefly builds in north of the state through
early Wednesday before a weakness in the ridge develops owing to a
second cold front approaching.  The ridge builds back in place for
the end of the week.  Similar to yesterday, the EC mean is a
little stronger with the surface high pressure building in over
the Hawaii domain by the end of the forecast period but comparable
with placement of the high pressure centers. 

In terms of sensible weather, there will be fluctuations with the
direction of the trade winds and their intensity as the fronts
approach and pass by.  No significant storm systems appear to be
on the horizon in terms of enhanced rainfall potential, with the
normal trade wind induced showers expected to continue across the
favored terrain.  Increased oceanic swells are likely for
north-facing coastal areas as a large cyclone passes well to the
north of the region late in the forecast period.

D. Hamrick