Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
726 AM EST Sun Jan 6 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 7 2019 - 00Z Mon Jan 14 2019

Models and ensembles this morning are in relatively good agreement
over the central Pacific regarding the synoptic scale pattern. 
The surface high northeast of the state on Sunday breaks down as a
cold front sinks southward on Monday from a strong mid-latitude
cyclone near 40 degrees north.  High pressure briefly builds in
north of the state through early Wednesday before a weakness in
the ridge develops owing to a second cold front approaching
Thursday morning.  The ridge builds back in place for the end of
the week with another trough passing north of the Islands.  The EC
mean and GEFS mean are similar with respect to timing of the
fronts and the EC mean slightly stronger with the surface high. 

In terms of sensible weather, there will be fluctuations with the
direction of the trade winds and their intensity as the fronts
approach and pass by.  No significant storm systems appear to be
on the horizon in terms of enhanced rainfall potential, with the
normal trade wind induced showers expected to continue across the
favored terrain, with the highest rainfall chances Monday night
and into Tuesday from the cold front.  Increased oceanic swells
are likely for north-facing coastal areas as a large cyclone
passes well to the north of the region late next week.

D. Hamrick