Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
721 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 22 2019 - 00Z Tue Jan 29 2019

A cold front will approach Kauai but stall to the northwest.
Ensembles and latest GFS/ECMWF keep the majority of the rainfall
just north and west of the area as the upper trough pulls to the
northeast. Upper heights will slowly rise starting midweek as
trades become weak out of the east-southeast to east. By Friday
into the weekend, troughing is forecast to slide eastward to the
north of the area to around 145W as the tail end of a cold front
likely slips through the islands. Winds will back to the northeast
and increase behind the front as some light rain affects mainly
windward/mauka locations. Much more uncertainty exists by next
Monday as some models favor troughing or even a closed low
approaching the region from the Northwest. The 00Z ECMWF and its
ensemble mean were farther west than the Canadian/GFS and their
ensemble means.


Fracasso