Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
721 AM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 26 2019 - 00Z Sat Feb 02 2019

A cold front will push through the islands and shift/increase
winds to the north and northeast after it passes. Though a brief
rise in precipitable water values will precede the front, models
only show a modest area of showers later today into Saturday but
higher amounts in windward locations (north/northeast-facing
slopes) per the hi-res guidance. Next week, troughing will
settle/deepen east of the state though the models/ensembles showed
a large degree of uncertainty in the location of a possible closed
low. For now, best ensemble overlap suggests a trough position
near the 00Z GEFS mean which was farther east than the 00Z ECMWF
but not as far east as the 00Z GFS. This would maintain breezy
trades from the northeast but generally only light showers.

Fracasso