Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 711 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019 Valid 00Z Wed Jan 30 2019 - 00Z Wed Feb 06 2019 An upper low initially just east of the state will reflect as low pressure/inverted troughing at the surface. The gradient between this feature and high pressure to the northwest will generate brisk to strong northerly to northeasterly winds over the islands through Wednesday-Thursday. By Friday the upper low will shear out as additional energy drops into the overall mean trough. Increasing dominance of high pressure to the north should promote more easterly trades by the weekend and early next week. The 00Z ECMWF provides one question mark in this scenario. It brings late week central Pacific shortwave energy southward across the islands during the weekend versus consensus that is somewhat farther east. This would lead to a temporary disruption in trades. The 00Z ECMWF mean is much closer to the majority cluster as was the previous ECMWF run, so at this time would prefer an average of non-00Z ECMWF solutions. Moisture rotating around the upper low east of the state will bring areas of generally light to moderate rainfall with a focus over north/northeast-facing terrain through mid-late week. By the weekend and early next week showers will likely focus over eastward-facing locales. Rausch